INDICATA Market Watch: Online B2C used BEV demand stalls

Online B2C used BEV demand stalls

Online B2C used BEV demand has been a rollercoaster of a ride over the last 12 months. As new models entered the used car market demand saw them become the fastest-selling powertrain in December 2021. The Netherlands was one of the first countries to see this trend and whilst there was some hiatus during 2022, in part due to the soaring energy costs and other cost-of-living issues, they remained a fast-selling powertrain until September when demand stalled, and they fell back to being the slowest selling powertrain.

Average prices have increased each month except for diesel

Part of the issue could be explained by looking at average online retail prices. Our online B2C used car retail price index is based on a consistent pool of vehicles indexed against January 2022 and would normally see a lifecycle driven downward curve in average prices. Throughout 2022 average prices have consistently increased month-on-month for all powertrains except diesel.

Average online BEV prices significantly outperformed the average price increase for the whole market. Some of that can be explained by a richer mix of used BEVs now available but it seems that the increased demand created an opportunity for prices to rise sharply too. Since that September fall in sales demand we are now seeing prices fall faster than the rest of the market with BEV prices at the start of December 0.8 percentage points down month-on-month. Average online used car prices for the whole market were just 0.1pp lower over the same period but they are still 7.9pp higher than in December 2021.

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Background

On the 24th of March INDICATA published its first White Paper “COVID-19 To what extent will the used car market be affected (and how to survive)?”. This document explored:

Early market trends - Initial impact of the virus and the social distancing measures implemented.

Market scenarios – A range of impacts based on infection rate development and historical market data.

Mitigation – Risk assessment by sector coupled with potential corrective actions.

We committed to keeping the market updated with live data, volume, and price, to keep abreast of the fast-moving environment.

As such we are pleased to announce “Indicata Market Watch”.

How do we produce our data?

Indicata analyses 9m Used Vehicle adverts across Europe every day. To ensure data integrity, our system goes through extensive data cleansing processes.

The Sales (deinstall data) in this report are based on advertisements of recognised automotive retailers of true used vehicles. As such, it does not include data related to private (P2P) advertisements.

Where an advert is removed from the internet, it is classified as a “Sale”.

Appendix

INDICATA Market Watch December 2022 (The Netherlands)
INDICATA Market Watch December 2022 (Europe)